Blue Lake, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

690
FXUS65 KPSR 072302
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
400 PM MST Mon Apr 7 2025

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will be prevalent throughout this week and
into the weekend with high pressure aloft building over the region.
The high pressure will be at its peak Thursday and Friday with
temperatures in the high 90s to low 100s across most of the lower
deserts. This high pressure will also continue to bring mostly clear
skies and dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper-level water vapor imagery early this morning shows a ridge
building over western CONUS and a longwave trough stretching from
the upper Midwest down into northern Mexico. The aforementioned
ridge will continue to build over western CONUS throughout the week.
This ridge will cause temperatures to increase along with Moderate
HeatRisk developing across portions of the lower deserts by the end
of the week. That being said, hot temperatures and increasing
HeatRisk will be the main forecast concern this week.

With the ridge really starting to move into our region today,
afternoon high temperatures are forecasted to be around 6-8 degrees
warmer than they were yesterday. With highs ranging from the mid 80s
to low 90s across the lower deserts and in the upper 70s to low 80s
in the higher terrain areas. As the ridge strengthens, lower desert
afternoon high temperatures are forecasted to rise to the low-to-mid
90s on Tuesday and mid-to-upper 90s on Wednesday. The center of the
ridge will be over the Desert Southwest and at its peak (H5 heights
around 588dm) by the later half of the week. Currently Friday is
forecasted to be the hottest day of the week with a forecasted high
of 102 degrees in Phoenix, AZ, Yuma, AZ, Blythe, CA, and Imperial,
CA. Current NBM forecast has a greater than 90% chance that a lot of
lower desert communities will reach the century mark for the first
time this year by the end of the week. With temperatures around 15-
18 degrees above normal they will also be nearing new record high
temperature marks as well (see CLIMATE section below). There will be
areas of Moderate HeatRisk developing across the lower deserts
starting Thursday, which will have impacts on those who are
sensitive to the heat, and/or those who have prolonged exposure to
the heat without adequate hydration. So be sure to practice smart
heat safety this week and try to limit your time outdoors,
especially during the peak heat of the day, and make sure to drink
plenty of water. There will be adequate cooling at night with
overnight lows dipping into the low to mid 60s outside of urban core
areas and in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees in the urban core
areas.

Global ensemble guidance continues to be in pretty good agreement
that by late next weekend and into next week a large scale trough
will move into our region. The ensemble members are in disagreement
with the exact strength and depth of the trough, but it is expected
to at least weaken the ridge leading to at least a brief cooling
trend for our region. Currently afternoon high temperatures are
forecasted to fall back into the upper 80s to low 90s across the
lower deserts by early next week. It is unlikely that this trough
would bring enough moisture to our region to support any rain
chances. However, it`s more likely that this trough would lead to
breezy to locally windy conditions for our region, which could lead
to some elevated fire weather concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2300Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT;
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No weather issues will exist through Tuesday evening under clear
skies. Timing of the typical directional winds shifts with speeds
largely under 10kt will be nearly identical to the past 24 hours.
Extended periods of calm winds will be common across the region
during the late night/early morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will build over the region this week leading to
increasing temperatures, dry conditions, overall light winds, and
mostly clear skies. Temperatures are forecasted to be around 5
degrees above normal today, but rise to around 15-18 degrees above
normal (and near the century mark across much of the lower deserts)
by the end of the week. MinRHs will be less than 10% through the
week with poor overnight recovery, with maxRH around 15-30%. Winds
will overall be light and tend to follow their typical diurnal
tendencies.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record high temperatures this week:

Date       Phoenix        Yuma        El Centro
----       -------        ----        ---------

Apr  9   102 in 1989   102 in 1989   104 in 1989
Apr 10   100 in 2018   100 in 1960    98 in 2018
Apr 11    99 in 2023   101 in 1936   100 in 2018
Apr 12    99 in 1936   102 in 1962   103 in 1940

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Berislavich/Ryan
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich/Ryan
CLIMATE...Kuhlman